Thursday, March 5, 2009

Uh oh

I thought I was about as bearish as they come. But Karl Denninger has topped me. He is always a bit hyperbolic in his writings (like yours truly), but from the beginning, he has been a pretty good forecaster of the crisis. I warn you not to click on the link unless you are prepared to be scared shitless.

From an optimist's POV, writing like that suggests we may have actually hit bottom in this crisis. The pessimist would answer with one of the oft-repeated quotations from the Great Depression - "just when we thought it was over, it turned out it was just beginning."

Put me in the pessimist camp sadly.


Restless Native said...

Holy shneikies. Gams, honestly what do you put the odds at of his scenario playing out? More than 1%? He seems to think it is a done deal, which is almost reassuring, as it certainly seems a bit over the top, so it is easier to write him off, but I put nervous nonetheless.

GammaBoy said...

Much higher than 1%, although not be any means a guarantee like Denninger would have it. Although I think the pension crisis is 100% guaranteed. That is going to anger a lot of people. The results of the will be unpredictable.

GammaBoy said...

Just thought I would add this link to one of Denninger's article which is apparently sort of a prequel to the one I linked.

What I find interesting is that he ties it up with the same call I made that this a mathematical problem, not a ideological one. I wish both parties would come to terms with that.